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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

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·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

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$0
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. You’ll find a real-time price chart reflecting trader sentiment, the total volume traded of $0, and the 24-hour volume of $0. This allows you to monitor the market’s activity and understand how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard also shows the percentage of traders predicting each outcome, giving a clear view of the collective forecast.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on models and fundamental analysis, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, varying risk appetites, or the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard analyses. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming your own prediction about the future direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to incorporate new information and changing perspectives on the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome determined by whether the crude oil price at 4:15AM-4:30AM ET on October 30th is higher or lower than its price at 4:15AM ET on the same day. The result will be verified against credible public reporting of the official crude oil price at that time. Traders will then be able to see whether their predictions aligned with the actual market movement, and payouts will be distributed accordingly.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, shifts in OPEC+ production policies, or significant changes in global economic growth forecasts could all drive price fluctuations. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand data from China will be closely watched. Any surprise announcements regarding supply disruptions or changes in energy demand could lead to substantial movements in the crude oil price and, consequently, in this market.