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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4AM ET

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N/A
N/A
—
$30
N/A
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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a running display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders. This can lead to divergences in expectations, particularly when unforeseen events or rapidly changing circumstances impact the crude oil price. It's common to see this market anticipating shifts before they are fully reflected in consensus analyst ratings, or conversely, exhibiting more stability when analysts are revising their predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the designated time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will rise, the higher the 'up' contract price will climb, and vice versa for the 'down' contract. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:45 AM and 4:00 AM Eastern Time on October 30, 2026. If the price is higher at 4:00 AM than at 3:45 AM, the 'up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, is a key factor. Unexpected changes in OPEC+ production policies or shifts in global demand due to economic slowdowns or recessions could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, major weather events, like hurricanes disrupting oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, or significant inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could all cause substantial movement in the crude oil price market.