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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T07:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T07:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on how others are positioning themselves ahead of the October 30th event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable oil price, this market shows traders are assigning a probability to both upward and downward movement. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and reflect the collective judgment of participants, rather than relying on a single firm’s research or a limited set of economic indicators. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by a decentralized forecasting mechanism.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all traders participating in the market, offering a dynamic and responsive indicator of potential price movements. Traders can see the best bid and ask prices to enter or exit positions.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:30 AM and 3:45 AM Eastern Time on October 30, 2024. If the price is higher at 3:45 AM than at 3:30 AM, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, could cause substantial price swings. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data or US employment figures), will also be closely watched. Even unforeseen weather events impacting oil infrastructure, like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.