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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$247

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $247, and the total volume traded to date, which is $247. This provides a clear picture of market activity and where traders are placing their bets regarding future oil prices.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting a stable oil price in the short term, the odds here reflect a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential factors. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and expert opinions, as this market aggregates insights from a diverse group of participants, potentially identifying overlooked risks or opportunities not captured in standard reports. This difference can be valuable for informed decision-making.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the future price of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 30th and the closing price at 3:30 PM ET. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining whether the price went up or down during the specified timeframe.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any unforeseen changes in supply or demand due to weather events, could cause substantial shifts in the odds. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding the evolving sentiment in this market.