TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$244,077,041

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,901,278,909

407,043

Markets across

39,548

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,422

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$53

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2AM-2:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$53
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T06:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $53. Total volume for this market is $53. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track activity related to this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical factors, this market’s participants are expressing their beliefs about the short-term price movement during a specific window. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or expert opinions, as this market aggregates diverse perspectives and allows individuals to put their capital behind their convictions. This dynamic often leads to a more accurate collective forecast.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These probabilities are influenced by news events, economic data releases, and overall market sentiment, all reflected in the trading activity of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 30th. A price increase will result in a positive outcome, while a price decrease will result in a negative outcome for this market. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, such as manufacturing indices or inventory reports, could influence trader sentiment and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Any surprise news regarding oil inventories is also a key factor.