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416,910

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$770

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$150
$770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $769, and the total volume traded to date, which is $770. This provides a clear overview of how traders are positioning themselves on this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. If analysts are largely bullish on crude oil, you might see a higher probability assigned to the 'up' outcome here than their consensus suggests, or vice versa. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming your own prediction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and conversely for 'down' contracts. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the odds closely mirror the current sentiment surrounding crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during the specified timeframe – from 2:45 PM to 3:00 PM Eastern Time on October 30th. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted whether the price increased or decreased during that period.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely cause a substantial shift in the odds. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could influence trader sentiment and move this market. Keep an eye on these key indicators as the resolution date approaches.