TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$142

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $141. The total volume traded to date is $142. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when significant uncertainty surrounds the future price of crude oil. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases present in either approach.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available, providing a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange. The direction of price movement – up or down – relative to the market open on October 30th will determine the winning outcome for this market.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policy could have a major impact. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data or US GDP figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or unexpected weather patterns impacting oil transportation could influence trading activity in this market.