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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$273

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 12:00 PM and 12:15 PM ET on October 30th. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $271, and the total market volume, which is $273. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders betting with real capital. Often, prediction markets can provide an early signal of shifts in expectations that haven’t yet been fully incorporated into standard analyst predictions. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 PM and 12:15 PM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 12:15 PM ET than at 12:00 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will be the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or announcements regarding OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or inflation, can also influence crude oil prices. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding inventory levels or demand forecasts could lead to substantial shifts in the odds. Traders will be closely monitoring these signals to adjust their positions in this market.