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410,833

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$210

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 1:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$289
$210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T16:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $209. The total volume for this market is $210. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds provide a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While analysts often release price targets and directional recommendations, this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. These traders weigh various factors—geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, economic indicators—to express their beliefs about future price movements. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those implied by analyst consensus, as each approach utilizes different information and methodologies.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified resolution time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing expectations about the future price of crude oil. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome determined by comparing the crude oil price at 12:45PM-1:00PM ET on October 30th to the price at the market’s open. The resolution will be verified against credible public reporting of the official crude oil price at that time. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction of 'up' or 'down' was correct. This allows for a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, would likely cause a substantial price movement. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data or US GDP figures), could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels reported by the EIA are key catalysts to watch. Any surprise developments in these areas could lead to rapid changes in the odds.