TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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4,340

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$148

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 12:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $145, and the total volume traded to date, which is $148. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick snapshot of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. This can lead to divergences in expectations, particularly when unforeseen events or ‘black swan’ scenarios are considered. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, offering a dynamic and responsive indicator of market expectations. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 12:30 AM and 12:45 AM ET on October 30th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are all potential catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, could also influence sentiment. Furthermore, any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply – like a major pipeline outage or a natural disaster – could lead to substantial price swings and shifts in the odds within this market.