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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,038

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$1,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time as traders buy and sell shares. You can also see the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,038, and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,031. This information helps participants understand market sentiment and track trading activity related to this specific commodity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It's common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or when there's significant uncertainty surrounding the future price of crude oil. This difference in perspective can be valuable for those seeking a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the price will rise, the higher the 'up' share price will climb, and vice versa for the 'down' shares. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time forecast of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:15 AM ET and 10:30 AM ET on October 30th. If the price is higher at 10:30 AM ET than at 10:15 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or demand for oil, will also be closely watched. Additionally, any significant news regarding oil inventories, refinery capacity, or major energy company announcements could cause substantial shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market. Weather events, especially hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, can also influence crude oil prices.