TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,475

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart illustrating how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,419. The total volume traded to date is $1,475. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probabilistic forecast. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate information and react to news more rapidly than slower-moving consensus estimates. Examining these differences can reveal where the crowd diverges from expert opinion regarding the future direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. As more traders express their views, the market price converges towards a probabilistic assessment of the outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest available information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:30 AM and 9:45 AM Eastern Time on October 29th. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources, determining whether the market correctly predicted an increase or decrease in crude oil prices during that period.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as supply disruptions or political instability, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, or any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could all move this market substantially.