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412,077

Markets across

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$937

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 8:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the implied probability of the price going up or down, based on trading activity. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $928. Total volume for this market is $937. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities related to the direction of crude oil prices during the specified timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility in crude oil, this market is pricing in a specific outcome within a short timeframe. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and analyst expectations, as markets aggregate diverse information and real-time sentiment, while forecasts often rely on modeled projections. This difference highlights the market’s unique ability to incorporate new information quickly.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to a price increase during the 8:30AM-8:45AM ET window on October 29th. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for rapid adjustments to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:30 AM ET and 8:45 AM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 8:45 AM ET than it was at 8:30 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies could create volatility. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Even weather forecasts impacting oil transportation or refinery operations could influence trading activity. Any news that alters expectations about short-term crude oil supply or demand has the potential to shift the odds in this market.