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419,363

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$856

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 7:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 7AM-7:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$856
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $855. The total volume traded to date is $856, providing insight into overall market interest. This information helps traders understand sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, and the ability of the market to quickly adapt to new information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view presented in polls or by financial news outlets, offering a potentially valuable alternative signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment among traders. The current implied probabilities are visible on the market dashboard.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of crude oil between 7:00 AM and 7:15 AM Eastern Time on October 29th. The direction of price movement during that 15-minute window will determine whether the 'up' or 'down' outcome is declared. The platform will verify the price against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 29, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as unexpected disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also influence prices. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration, and even unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure could all contribute to price volatility and shift the odds in this market.