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420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 6:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of how traders are positioning themselves on this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and potential unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected demand shifts. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in conventional analyst estimates, offering a unique forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will rise, the higher the 'yes' contract price will climb, and vice versa for the 'no' contract. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to probabilities as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:15 PM and 6:30 PM Eastern Time on October 29th. The market will determine if the price went up or down during that timeframe, based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels would likely have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will be closely watched. Even weather patterns, especially those impacting oil infrastructure or shipping routes, could introduce volatility into this market.