TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$77

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $77, and the total volume traded to date, which is $77. This provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and activity surrounding this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the future. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergences from initial analyst predictions. Comparing the two can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified resolution time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the price of crude oil, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source, is higher or lower than its price at 3:45 PM - 4:00 PM ET on October 29th. Traders will be able to view the final outcome and settlement details on Predict following verification.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also influence prices. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unforeseen weather events impacting oil infrastructure could all contribute to shifts in the crude oil price market.