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410,482

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$3

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3. This allows you to quickly gauge market interest and the intensity of trading activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and changing sentiment. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of the crude oil price going up or down. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of contracts betting on that outcome will rise. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:30 PM and 3:45 PM ET on October 29th. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that specific 15-minute window, and that result will be the final outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also drive price movements. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration could influence trading activity in this market.