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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$931

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $915. The total volume traded to date is $931, providing insight into overall market interest. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and track changes in expectations as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when anticipating unpredictable events or reacting to breaking news. The wisdom of the crowd can sometimes outperform expert opinions, and this market provides a unique way to compare these viewpoints. Keep in mind that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market provides a probability distribution.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders dynamically adjust these prices based on new information and their own analysis, creating a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect changing expectations regarding the crude oil price.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:15 AM and 2:30 AM Eastern Time on October 29, 2026. The market will determine whether the price goes up or down during that period. The final outcome will be based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts or political instability in oil-producing regions, are major catalysts. Unexpected changes in global economic growth, particularly in major economies like China and the United States, can also impact oil demand. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and even major weather events that disrupt oil supply chains could all cause substantial shifts in the market’s pricing.