TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12AM-12:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$480

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12AM-12:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12AM-12:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 12:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12AM-12:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T04:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T04:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $473, and the total volume traded to date, which is $480. This provides a snapshot of market sentiment and activity around the anticipated price movement of crude oil. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions on crude oil prices, this market allows traders to express their beliefs through actual wagers. This can lead to a more accurate forecast, as traders have ‘skin in the game’. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective wisdom of the crowd reflected in this market’s pricing, especially when considering unforeseen geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions influencing oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. This results in a real-time assessment of market expectations regarding crude oil price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 AM ET and 12:15 AM ET on October 29th. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. This timeframe is crucial for determining whether the market resolves in favor of the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil infrastructure, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, could also cause substantial price fluctuations and impact trading activity in this market. Weather events, particularly hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, can also create volatility.