TOTAL VOLUME:

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417,059

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$165

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 12:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T04:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T04:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $163. The total volume traded on this market is $165. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While some analysts predict a continued increase in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and production cuts, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and allow traders to react quickly to new information, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment than static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. Traders are essentially betting against each other, and the resulting price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market for forecasting the direction of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:15 AM ET and 12:30 AM ET on October 29th. If the price is higher at 12:30 AM ET than at 12:15 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or announcements regarding OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data or US GDP figures), could also influence trader sentiment. Even weather events, such as hurricanes impacting oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, have the potential to create volatility in this market.