TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$612

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 1:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$612
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $599, and the total volume traded to date, which is $612. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movement in this market. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment and potential price direction.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical indicators, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when significant uncertainty surrounds the event. This difference can be valuable, as prediction markets have demonstrated an ability to outperform traditional forecasts in certain situations, offering a unique signal about potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price represents the probability of the outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to expectations as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 1:15 AM and 1:30 AM ET on October 29, 2026. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the official result posted on the Predict platform.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, significant weather events, like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, can disrupt oil production and affect prices. Any unexpected news regarding energy policy or technological breakthroughs in alternative energy sources could also influence trading activity in this market.