TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$323,326,361

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

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5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$921

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$56
$921
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $918, and the total volume traded to date, which is $921. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unexpected events or rapidly changing conditions influence market sentiment. This difference can highlight areas where the market perceives risks or opportunities that aren't fully captured in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, offering a dynamic assessment of potential price movements. The market's efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM Eastern Time on October 29, 2026, compared to the price at 11:30 AM ET. The direction of the price change—up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or demand for oil, will also have an impact. Unexpected weather events, like hurricanes disrupting oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are other key factors that traders will be closely watching.