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419,363

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$469

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $469. This allows traders to quickly assess the market’s direction and intensity of belief. The total volume traded to date is $469, indicating overall interest in this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly when significant uncertainty surrounds the future price of crude oil. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis. This market provides a unique, forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly adjusting their positions and influencing the overall price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to changing conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 29th. The final price will be compared to the opening price to determine whether the market resolves in favor of 'Up' or 'Down'. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict following the event.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or changes in political stability, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the EIA, could drive price fluctuations and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.