TOTAL VOLUME:

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410,833

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$3

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 10:15PM and 10:30PM ET on October 29th. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how they’ve shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly when significant uncertainty exists or when anticipating unpredictable geopolitical factors. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements than relying on a single source of information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These prices are dynamic and change constantly as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, creating a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the direction of the crude oil price between 10:15PM and 10:30PM ET on October 29th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during that 15-minute period. If the price increases, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any surprise announcements regarding inventory levels, refinery outages, or major weather events affecting oil production or transportation could cause significant price fluctuations and shift the odds in this market.