TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$212

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 8:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $210. The total volume traded on this market is $212. This information allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are focused on geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders reacting to a broader range of information, including real-time data and less-publicized indicators. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information more rapidly and reflect a wider spectrum of opinions than a typical consensus forecast.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate sentiment of all participants on Predict and is a measure of the market’s expectation for the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 8:30 PM and 8:45 PM ET on October 28th. The final price will be verified against reputable financial news sources and industry benchmarks to determine whether the price moved up or down during that period.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected announcements from OPEC regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration could all trigger substantial price swings. Additionally, major economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, could influence market sentiment and impact trading activity in this market. Any unforeseen disruptions to global supply chains could also be a catalyst.