TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$507

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 8:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$69
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $504. Total volume for this market is $507. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific prediction market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in situations with high uncertainty or where subjective factors play a significant role. This difference can be valuable for identifying potential mispricings and informed trading decisions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability distribution. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM Eastern Time on October 28th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the final result clearly displayed on Predict.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as conflicts or political instability, are likely catalysts. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data) or supply (like OPEC+ production decisions), could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding inventory levels, refinery outages, or significant weather events affecting oil infrastructure could cause shifts in the price of this market.