TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$646

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$50
$646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart reflecting how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $649. The total volume traded on this market is $646. This allows participants to gauge market confidence and identify potential trading opportunities based on collective predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for the price of crude oil, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of perspectives and potential scenarios. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities based on evolving sentiment. This market provides a dynamic, real-time assessment of expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, offering a collective forecast of the market’s expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider during the 7:30AM-7:45AM ET window on October 28th. The direction of price movement – up or down – relative to the opening price within that timeframe will determine the winning outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as unexpected disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also move prices. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected weather patterns impacting oil production or transportation could all contribute to shifts in sentiment and trading activity within this market.