TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$888

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, alongside the total volume traded – currently at $888 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $882. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this specific market. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, providing insight into potential trends.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, the inclusion of tacit knowledge, or simply a greater sensitivity to real-time information. It’s common to see this market anticipating changes before they are reflected in consensus analyst estimates, or conversely, exhibiting more stability in the face of short-term noise.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider during the specified 7:15AM-7:30AM ET time window. The market will determine whether the price at that time is higher or lower than the opening price, establishing the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their positions in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East or Russia, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand – like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures – will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any significant shifts in US oil inventories, have the potential to move the price of crude oil and, consequently, this market. Weather events impacting oil infrastructure could also play a role.