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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$95

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 6:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$95
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. It displays the real-time odds as determined by traders on the platform, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $95, and the total volume traded to date, which is $95. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this particular commodity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the informed opinions of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty surrounding future oil supply and demand. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the collective wisdom of the crowd versus expert opinions on the direction of the crude oil price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market-making algorithm to ensure liquidity and maintain fair pricing, allowing traders to quickly enter and exit positions based on their evolving views of the market.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:30 AM and 6:45 AM Eastern Time on October 28th. The platform will verify the final price against established financial data sources to determine whether the price went up or down during that period and settle the market accordingly.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil supply due to weather events or unforeseen circumstances could also drive substantial price movements. Traders will be closely monitoring these signals to adjust their positions and influence the odds in this market.