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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$239

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $235. The total volume traded to date is $239. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s evolving as we approach the event’s conclusion.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the direction of crude oil prices. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money where their beliefs are. This provides a unique signal that may differ from conventional wisdom.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, reflecting the aggregated expectations of all participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 5:45 AM and 6:00 AM Eastern Time on October 28th. If the price is higher at 6:00 AM than at 5:45 AM, the ‘up’ outcome will win; otherwise, the ‘down’ outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could all cause substantial price swings. Furthermore, any shifts in global economic outlook, particularly concerning demand from China and the United States, could also influence trader sentiment and move this market. Keep an eye on these developments as the resolution date approaches.