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419,492

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$697

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 5:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-5AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$15
$697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll see the odds reflecting what traders are predicting, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $694, and the total volume traded to date, which is $697. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment surrounding future oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, or macroeconomic factors. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in conventional analyst reports, offering a potentially leading indicator of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a dynamic pricing algorithm to ensure fair and efficient trading, and the implied probability of each outcome is derived from the current contract prices.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:45 AM and 5:00 AM Eastern Time on October 28th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or substantial shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand data from China could also trigger price movements. Any surprise news related to supply disruptions, such as refinery outages or pipeline issues, would likely have a noticeable impact on trading activity in this market.