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410,833

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$621

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 3:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3PM-3:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of crude oil increasing or decreasing in value. You'll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $620. The total volume traded to date is $621. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to this specific commodity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts predict continued volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions, this market’s participants are expressing a more nuanced view. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their capital at risk. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe oil will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 28th and the closing price at 3:15 PM ET. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their positions.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant disruptions to oil infrastructure, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, could also trigger substantial price movements and impact trading activity in this market. Monitoring these events is crucial for understanding potential shifts in sentiment.