TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$130

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$25
$130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $132, and the total volume traded to date, which is $130. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements and how much activity is occurring in this market. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply a different interpretation of the same data. It's common to see this market anticipate events that haven't yet been fully priced into mainstream forecasts, or conversely, to show greater skepticism than analysts regarding certain outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the price going up, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an increase. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the final settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider during the 3:15PM-3:30PM ET window on October 28th. The direction of price movement – up or down – relative to the opening price at 3:15PM ET will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand projections could also drive price movements. Any surprise news related to supply disruptions, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, would likely have a substantial impact on the odds in this market.