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413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$129

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $127, and the total volume traded to date, which is $129. This provides a clear overview of market activity and where traders are placing their bets regarding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions or the market's ability to rapidly adjust to new information. It’s common to see this market anticipating shifts before they are fully reflected in conventional forecasts, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified resolution date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of the price going up or down is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a dynamic assessment of market sentiment. It's a real-time indicator of what traders believe will happen.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 28th and the closing price on the same day. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or surprising economic data releases (particularly those related to global demand) could all trigger substantial shifts in trader sentiment. Additionally, any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, such as weather events or pipeline outages, would likely have a noticeable impact on the price of crude oil and, consequently, on this market.