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410,482

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-1AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$626

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-1AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-1AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 1:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-1AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T04:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T04:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $617, and the total volume traded to date, which is $626. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements in crude oil. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, varying risk tolerances, or the incorporation of non-public information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in mainstream analyst predictions, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on future crude oil price direction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the resolution date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds constantly adjust as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of the future price of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) at the specified time. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down from the starting price – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price and the resulting outcome on Predict.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth) and supply (like OPEC+ production decisions), will also have a substantial impact. Unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or changes in currency exchange rates could also trigger price swings and shifts in the odds within this market.