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408,127

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,623

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 9:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$1,623
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, which is currently $1,612. The total volume traded on this market is $1,623. The dashboard also displays a price history, showing how the probabilities have shifted as traders buy and sell contracts, giving you a sense of market sentiment leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for the crude oil price, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. If analysts are largely bullish, we might see a higher probability assigned to the 'up' outcome in this market, but discrepancies can occur due to differing methodologies and information access. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform polls or individual expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the odds you see are a real-time representation of what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a particular outcome, and the market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 9:15 AM ET than at 9:00 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also move the market. Additionally, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely have a substantial effect. Even weather patterns, especially those impacting oil transportation routes, can influence trader sentiment and shift the probabilities in this market.