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420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$699

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 9:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$82
$699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $693 and the total volume is $699. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. If analysts are largely bullish on crude oil, you might see a higher implied probability of an upward price movement in this market, but divergences can occur based on factors not fully captured in standard models. It's a valuable comparison point to see where collective prediction differs from expert opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 9:30 AM than at 9:15 AM, the 'up' outcome will be verified; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be verified. The platform uses publicly available data to determine the final price and resolve the market accordingly.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, could drive prices higher. Conversely, indications of weakening global demand, perhaps due to economic slowdowns in China or Europe, could push prices down. Inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC decisions regarding production levels are also key catalysts. Even weather patterns, particularly those affecting oil transportation, can introduce volatility into this market.