TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$183

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$23
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down, as determined by traders’ buy and sell orders. You’ll find a dynamic price chart reflecting these probabilities, along with the total volume traded – currently $183 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $181. This provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes the price is heading, offering a different perspective than traditional forecasts. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades are placed.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market offers a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market expresses predictions as probabilities. It’s common to see differences between the two, as prediction markets reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than a single analyst report. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, biases, or access to information. Examining these differences can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM Eastern Time on October 27th. If the price is higher at 7:45 AM than at 7:30 AM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final result will be determined by publicly available price data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, would likely cause substantial price movement. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also have a considerable impact. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even weather forecasts predicting major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could shift trader sentiment and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.