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420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2,094

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 5:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$16
$2,094
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $2,094—and the 24-hour volume, which is $2,086. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has priced in information over time. This provides a clear overview of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements.

Currently, analysts have varied opinions on the future direction of crude oil prices, with forecasts ranging from moderate increases to potential declines. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders who are putting their capital at risk. While analyst forecasts are based on models and expert opinions, the odds in this market represent real-time predictions based on actual financial commitments. It's a fascinating comparison to see how the 'wisdom of the crowd' aligns with, or diverges from, traditional financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the designated time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, and the volume traded indicates the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:00 PM and 5:15 PM Eastern Time on October 27th. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, could cause substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure could all contribute to shifts in the odds within this market.