TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$4

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. It also provides a price history chart, showcasing how the market has priced in information over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $4, as well as the 24-hour volume, which is $4. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert predictions and the collective judgment expressed through trading volume in this market. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases in traditional forecasting methods.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price essentially represents the consensus view of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market stays responsive to evolving conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:00 AM and 4:15 AM Eastern Time on October 27, 2026, compared to the price at the start of that period. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and that result will be the final outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key drivers. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also cause substantial price swings. Furthermore, major weather events, like hurricanes impacting oil infrastructure, or shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could all contribute to increased trading volume and price movement in this market.