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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$25
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is updated frequently to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often present a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently issue price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate changes before they are fully priced into analyst expectations, or conversely, to exhibit more skepticism than the consensus view suggests.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified end date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that traders assign to each outcome, and it's constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect changing expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between the opening price on October 27th and the closing price on October 27th, between 3:45 AM and 4:00 AM Eastern Time. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global growth and demand, can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or changes in currency exchange rates could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any news related to supply disruptions, such as refinery outages or pipeline issues, could influence the price of crude oil and, consequently, this market.