TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,216

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$247
$1,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down by Oct 27, 2026. You can view the current odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,208, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,216. This provides a snapshot of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique data. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by Oct 27, 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of participants, and changes as new information becomes available. Traders are incentivized to express their true beliefs, leading to a potentially more accurate forecast than traditional methods.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the market open on October 27th and the market close at 2:45 PM ET on the same day. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. This is determined by publicly available data sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, would likely have a substantial impact. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration, could trigger significant price movements and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.