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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$10

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down by Oct 27, 2026. You’ll find a real-time display of the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $10. Total volume for this market is $10. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected economic data releases. It’s common to see this market react more quickly to new information than slower-moving analyst reports, offering a potentially more dynamic view of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the 'up' outcome, with the 'down' outcome being the complement. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and informative price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the close of trading on October 26th and the close of trading on October 27th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up,' while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'down.' The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) could all trigger substantial price movements. Additionally, macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, can influence investor sentiment and impact demand expectations for crude oil, thereby shifting the probabilities reflected in this market.