TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$392

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 10:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time price chart reflecting trader sentiment, along with the total volume traded – currently $392 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $392. This allows you to quickly gauge market interest and how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard also shows the top outcome as perceived by traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unexpected events occur. Examining these differences can provide valuable insight into market sentiment and the potential for surprises, offering a unique view beyond standard expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower than the current price at the close of trading. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to incorporate new information and changing expectations, giving a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 10:00 PM and 10:15 PM ET on October 27th. The final price will be compared to the prevailing price before the specified timeframe to determine whether the market predicts an increase or decrease. Traders will then be able to see the outcome and any associated payouts based on their positions.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even unforeseen weather events impacting oil infrastructure, could cause substantial shifts in trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.