TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

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$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

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4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$156

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$6
$156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $155. The total volume traded in this market is $156. This allows you to monitor trader sentiment and how it evolves as we approach the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for the crude oil price, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. This can lead to divergences, especially when significant uncertainty or hidden information exists. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event approaches.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:15 PM ET and 8:30 PM ET on October 26th. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also move the market. Furthermore, any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure could influence trader sentiment and the price of crude oil.