TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 7PM-7:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$40

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 7PM-7:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 7PM-7:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 7:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 7PM-7:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T23:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T23:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $40, and the total overall volume, which is $40. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is updated frequently to reflect the latest trading action and insights from participants.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals directly incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply a unique interpretation of available data. It's common to see this market anticipating shifts before they are widely acknowledged in mainstream financial analysis, offering a potentially valuable signal for those following crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continually adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the close of trading on October 23rd and the average price during the 7:00 PM - 7:15 PM ET window on October 26th. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or inflation, can also impact crude oil demand expectations. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength could drive price movements and, consequently, trading activity in this market.