TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$284

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 7:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $284, with $283 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to future crude oil price movements.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and company reports, this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating events that haven’t yet appeared in formal analyses. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can be more responsive to real-time information and shifts in sentiment. This difference can be particularly noticeable when considering unforeseen geopolitical events or supply disruptions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd and provides a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange during the specified timeframe. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during the 6:45 PM - 7:00 PM ET window on October 26th, based on this publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts could all cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) are closely watched by traders and could influence trading activity. Any surprise data releases or unforeseen disruptions to supply chains could also lead to volatility in this market.