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419,363

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,070

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,070
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You can view the odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume directly on the page. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $1,065 and the total volume is $1,070. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements, offering insights beyond traditional polls or analyst reports. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest market activity.

Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on models and reports, this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. This can lead to divergences in expectations, particularly when unforeseen events or 'black swan' scenarios are considered. Currently, the implied probability from this market may differ from the consensus view of analysts, potentially indicating a different assessment of risk or opportunity in the crude oil market. It's a useful comparison point for informed decision-making.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to rapidly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as conditions change. The current price reflects the aggregated assessment of all participants, making it a valuable indicator of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil during the 5:45AM-6:00AM ET window on October 26th. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant supporting data shortly after the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding oil inventories, refinery capacity, or major energy companies could influence the price of crude oil and, consequently, the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these developments for potential movements.