TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$260

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 4:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of October 26th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $260, and the 24-hour volume, which is $254. This provides a visual representation of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes and how activity is changing leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are publishing price targets for crude oil, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about the direction of the price—up or down—in a quantifiable way. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially offering insights into overlooked factors or contrarian opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower on October 26th. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities displayed on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly updating the perceived likelihood of each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism provides a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 4:00 PM and 4:15 PM Eastern Time on October 26th. If the price is higher at 4:15 PM than at 4:00 PM, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also move prices. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are likely to impact trader sentiment and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.