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419,492

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$285

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$10
$285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $285. The total volume traded to date is $285. This provides a clear overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the direction of crude oil prices, offering insight into collective expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment or react more quickly to breaking news than traditional forecasts, offering a unique and potentially valuable signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the close. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and the actions of other traders, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing signal.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to view the verified result on Predict following the close of trading and official reporting.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, or unexpected changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could all impact trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.